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7/2/2010 - Something's Afoul...

    Equity Market Overview I wrote in both a Special Report of late May and in my last report of June 4th that the technical and sentiment indications suggested an intermediate-term rally of significance. While the market was able to develop...

6/4/2010 - All Indications Point to Higher Equity Prices through Summer

    Equity Market Overview As I wrote last Friday in a special bulletin, the potential upside in equities is significant. By all measures, public and advisory sentiment have recently exhibited some of the most extreme readings that have hist...

5/27/2010 - SPECIAL ALERT: MAJOR BOTTOM IN PLACE - SUMMER RALLY AHEAD

Equity Market Overview A full report is forthcoming next Friday as the first Friday of the month. However, I felt it was imperative to write today as the potential upside in equities is significant. As I have written many times, it is the...

5/7/2010 - Forecast of Decline to February Lows Spot-on, Re-test of Lows Likely

Equity Market Overview The opening paragraph of my last newsletter read "Since the start of the year I have repeatedly suggested that the equity markets would be mired in a trading range. In my February 5th issue, I indicated that the bottom...

4/2/2010 - Excessive Bullish Sentiment + Weakening Market Internals Suggests Correction Ahead

  Equity Market Overview Since the start of the year I have repeatedly suggested that the equity markets would be mired in a trading range. In my February 5th issue I indicated the the bottom of the trading had likely been established. Toda...

3/5/2010 - Powerful Market Internals + Skeptical Sentiment = Higher Equity Prices Ahead

Equity Market Overview In my last issue one month ago I noted that while caution was still warranted " it appears that the lower boundary of the forecast trading range is being established" and that "I am seeing bullish/positive divergences i...

2/5/2010 - January 13th WARNING Proves Prescient - Caution Still Warranted

  Some clients have requested greater regularity and frequency in the publishing of the newsletters, which have previously been published largely at times of expected trend changes. Going forward, I will produce a newsletter on the FIRST FRIDAY of...

1/13/2010 WARNING: Significant Risks of Market Decline

    Equity Market Overview On October 19th I wrote my first warning about the stability and viability of the bull market advance. At that time the S&P 500 was at about 1100. Six weeks later, on November 27th, I wrote again that a signific...

11/27/2009 - WARNING: Significant Market Top Being Formed

This report was written entirely on Wednesday but, unfortunately, my proofing was interrupted by arriving house guests. Given the Dubai induced sell-off it appears a little anti-climatic now. However, the message still holds and the outlook certain...

10/19/2009 - WARNING: Heightened Bullish Sentiment + Poor Breadth/Internals = Trouble

  Global Equity Markets I mentioned in my previous October 2nd report that while the majority of price damage had likely occurred, sentiment measures had not retrenched quite enough to suggest adequate fear and concern for a bottom. I indicated tha...

10/2/2009 - Predicted Short-term Price Damage Nearing Completion, Bottoming Process to Begin

  Global Equity Markets Last week I pointed out that both sentiment and market breadth heralded the continuation of the decline that began late last month. Yesterday's dramatic drop is precisely the type of bull market correction I described. It ...

9/26/2009 Elevated Sentiment Measures Suggest Short-term Decline May Continue

  Global Equity Markets Several short-term measures of investor sentiment have reached extreme levels suggesting that the correction that began this week could continue. Similarly, short-term measures of market breadth illustrate a condition where ...

9/11/2009 - All Indications Point to Market Advance Continuing

  Global Equity Markets   When I last wrote in mid-July I indicated that the market consolidation was complete and that the advance would resume. This view was based primarily upon my assessment that investor sentiment had become too pessimistic. ...

7/13/2009 - Two Month Consolidation Complete; Rally to Resume

  Global Equity Markets The most fascinating aspect of the equity markets over the past two months is that a very modest consolidation has led to near outright fear on the part of investors. Discussions of "green shoots" have quickly turned to "...

5/29/2009 "Wall of Worry" Sentiment Indicates Rally Will Extend

   Global Equity Markets In the last newsletter, I indicated that we need to be mindful of a shift to excessive bullishness as that would be a warning. However, this week's sentiment data, as well as that of the entire rally, continues t...

5/8/2009 Skeptical Sentiment Suggests Rally Can Continue

Global Equity Markets Had I desisted from writing following my March 5th "ALERT" of an imminent bottom I'd have bragging rights to both avoiding the 2008-09 bear market and picking an important market bottom. However, that wasn't to be......

3/19/2009 Market Top Likely as Rally Turns Bears into SHORT–Kabobs

  Complacency is your worst enemy. It's a curious phenomena in speaking with many investors that have endured such huge losses (NOT under my watch however) who now assume "things can't get any worse" and with the recent rally that "we've hit bo...

3/13/2009 Equites: Possible Backing and Filling of Market Bottom

Global Equity Markets Last week I issued our first market "ALERT" in nearly a year suggesting a market bottom was imminent. That advice again proved timely as equities markets bottomed out within just 1-2 days of the "ALERT" and at the same p...

3/5/2009 ALERT: New Bull Market or Bear Market Rally Imminent !!!

Global Equity Markets Our last market "alert" was the "WARNING" message of May 8, 2008. This warning was only 10% from the market high and was followed by a nearly 50% decline (basis S&P 500). Since then, I have successfully maintained ...

2/20/2009 Equities: Retest November Lows As Predicted...Will They Hold?

Global Equity Markets In our last two issues of December 31st and January 30th, I indicated that 2009 may have a rough start because bullish sentiment had climbed to levels that, on some indicators, were the highest of the entire bear market. ...