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5/29/2009 "Wall of Worry" Sentiment Indicates Rally Will Extend

   Global Equity Markets In the last newsletter, I indicated that we need to be mindful of a shift to excessive bullishness as that would be a warning. However, this week's sentiment data, as well as that of the entire rally, continues t...

5/8/2009 Skeptical Sentiment Suggests Rally Can Continue

Global Equity Markets Had I desisted from writing following my March 5th "ALERT" of an imminent bottom I'd have bragging rights to both avoiding the 2008-09 bear market and picking an important market bottom. However, that wasn't to be......

3/19/2009 Market Top Likely as Rally Turns Bears into SHORT–Kabobs

  Complacency is your worst enemy. It's a curious phenomena in speaking with many investors that have endured such huge losses (NOT under my watch however) who now assume "things can't get any worse" and with the recent rally that "we've hit bo...

3/13/2009 Equites: Possible Backing and Filling of Market Bottom

Global Equity Markets Last week I issued our first market "ALERT" in nearly a year suggesting a market bottom was imminent. That advice again proved timely as equities markets bottomed out within just 1-2 days of the "ALERT" and at the same p...

3/5/2009 ALERT: New Bull Market or Bear Market Rally Imminent !!!

Global Equity Markets Our last market "alert" was the "WARNING" message of May 8, 2008. This warning was only 10% from the market high and was followed by a nearly 50% decline (basis S&P 500). Since then, I have successfully maintained ...

2/20/2009 Equities: Retest November Lows As Predicted...Will They Hold?

Global Equity Markets In our last two issues of December 31st and January 30th, I indicated that 2009 may have a rough start because bullish sentiment had climbed to levels that, on some indicators, were the highest of the entire bear market. ...

1/30/2009: Equities Likely to Retest November Lows

Equities Likely to Retest November Lows A Message for Absolute Return Portfolio Management clients: I am happy to report that our managed model portfolios had no equity exposure during the market collapse of the past 4+ months which have witne...

12/31/2008 Equities Likely to Face Rocky Start in 2009 BUT Finish Strong

A Message for Absolute Return Portfolio Management clients: I am happy to report that our managed model portfolios had no equity exposure during the market collapse of the past 3+ months which have witnessed 30%losses in both the domestic S&P...

12/11/2008 Equities: Likely Top at Hand

A Message for Absolute Return Portfolio Management clients: I am happy to report that our managed model portfolios had no equity exposure during the market collapse of the past three months which have witnessed 30%losses in both the domestic S&am...

11/18/2008 Equities: Bottom Hunting Behavior Suggests Recent Lows Will NOT Hold

  A Message for Absolute Return Portfolio Management clients: I am happy to report that our managed model portfolios had no equity exposure during the market collapse of the past two months which have witnessed 30%+ losses in both the domestic S&...

10/30/2008 Equities Sliding Down a Hill of Hope...Lower Prices Ahead

  A Message for Clients of Absolute Return Portfolio Management: I am happy to report that our model portfolios had no equity exposure during the market collapse of the past month which have witnessed 20%+ losses in both the domestic S&P 500 ...

10/22/2008 Uptick in Investor Sentiment Signals Further Declines Ahead

A Message for Absolute Return Portfolio Management clients: I am happy to report that our model portfolios had no equity exposure during the market collapse of the past few weeks which have witnessed 20%+ losses in both the domestic S&P 500 o...

10/4/2008: Portfolios Unscathed by Week's Nearly 10% Stock Market Plunge; Fear Curiously Absent

A Message for Absolute Return Portfolio Management clients: I am happy to report that our model portfolios had no equity exposure during the past two weeks which witnessed 10%+ losses in both the domestic S&P 500 of large capitalization stock...

09/15/2008: May 8th Prediction of 20% Bear Market Plunge Realized, Portfolios Unscathed, Bottom at Hand

A Message for Absolute Return Portfolio Management clients: I am happy to report that our model portfolios had no equity exposure coming into today's nearly 5% decline and were safely positioned in short-term government and investment grade bonds...

08/13/2008 Equities: Retest of July Lows Becoming Likely

Global Equity Markets Over the past month, the grave fears of inflation and economic slowing due to higher energy costs got a welcomed respite in the form of a 20%+ decline in oil prices. This provided some "fuel" for a rally in stocks. At the ti...

07/16/2008 Equities: Not Enough Fear for a Bottom

Global Equity Markets On May 8th, our newsletter headline was "WARNING: Equities at Intermediate-term TOP; next BEAR MARKET Decline Imminent!" Since then, global equity markets have plunged over 10%, as predicted. At that time, we also indicated ...

6/17/2008 Equities: Dog Days of Summer

Global Equity Markets On April 29th, this newsletter's headline was "Equities: Not out of the Woods Yet" and signaled that the market's health had turned questionable following our earlier forecasts of a bottom in the Spring. Just one week later...

6/10/2008: Forecast of Another Bear Market Leg Down Being Realized

Global Equity Markets On April 29th this newsletter's headline was "Equities: Not out of the Woods Yet" and signaled that the market's health had turned questionable following our earlier forecasts of a bottom in the Spring. Just one week later ...

5/8/2008 WARNING: Equities at Intermediate–term TOP; next BEAR MARKET Decline Imminent!

Global Equity Markets I am writing again so soon since our last issue because the risks in the equities markets have grown quite high in my opinion and I feel it is necessary for non-managed account readers to be aware of these risks and prepar...

4/29/2008 Equities: Not out of the woods yet...

  Global Equity Markets In our last issue in March I indicated that all of the requisite factors for a significant bottom existed. Namely; excessive pessimism coupled with a strong technical underpinning to the market. As luck would have it,...