
NEWSLETTERS
2/5/2010 - January 13th WARNING Proves Prescient - Caution Still Warranted
- Article
- February 5, 2010
Some clients have requested greater regularity and frequency in the publishing of the newsletters, which have previously been published largely at times of expected trend changes. Going forward, I will produce a newsletter on the FIRST FRIDAY of...
11/27/2009 - WARNING: Significant Market Top Being Formed
- Article
- November 27, 2009
This report was written entirely on Wednesday but, unfortunately, my proofing was interrupted by arriving house guests. Given the Dubai induced sell-off it appears a little anti-climatic now. However, the message still holds and the outlook certain...
10/19/2009 - WARNING: Heightened Bullish Sentiment + Poor Breadth/Internals = Trouble
- Article
- October 20, 2009
Global Equity Markets
I mentioned in my previous October 2nd report that while the majority of price damage had likely occurred, sentiment measures had not retrenched quite enough to suggest adequate fear and concern for a bottom. I indicated tha...
10/2/2009 - Predicted Short-term Price Damage Nearing Completion, Bottoming Process to Begin
- Article
- October 2, 2009
Global Equity Markets
Last week I pointed out that both sentiment and market breadth heralded the continuation of the decline that began late last month. Yesterday's dramatic drop is precisely the type of bull market correction I described. It ...
9/26/2009 Elevated Sentiment Measures Suggest Short-term Decline May Continue
- Article
- September 27, 2009
Global Equity Markets
Several short-term measures of investor sentiment have reached extreme levels suggesting that the correction that began this week could continue. Similarly, short-term measures of market breadth illustrate a condition where ...
9/11/2009 - All Indications Point to Market Advance Continuing
- Article
- September 12, 2009
Global Equity Markets
When I last wrote in mid-July I indicated that the market consolidation was complete and that the advance would resume. This view was based primarily upon my assessment that investor sentiment had become too pessimistic. ...
7/13/2009 - Two Month Consolidation Complete; Rally to Resume
- Article
- July 13, 2009
Global Equity Markets
The most fascinating aspect of the equity markets over the past two months is that a very modest consolidation has led to near outright fear on the part of investors. Discussions of "green shoots" have quickly turned to "...
5/29/2009 "Wall of Worry" Sentiment Indicates Rally Will Extend
- Article
- May 29, 2009
Global Equity Markets
In the last newsletter, I indicated that we need to be mindful of a shift to excessive bullishness as that would be a warning. However, this week's sentiment data, as well as that of the entire rally, continues t...
5/8/2009 Skeptical Sentiment Suggests Rally Can Continue
- Article
- May 8, 2009
Global Equity Markets
Had I desisted from writing following my March 5th "ALERT" of an imminent bottom I'd have bragging rights to both avoiding the 2008-09 bear market and picking an important market bottom. However, that wasn't to be......
3/19/2009 Market Top Likely as Rally Turns Bears into SHORT–Kabobs
- Article
- March 19, 2009
Complacency is your worst enemy. It's a curious phenomena in speaking with many investors that have endured such huge losses (NOT under my watch however) who now assume "things can't get any worse" and with the recent rally that "we've hit bo...